"C'mon, Get Happy." U.S. Economic Recovery Could Come in 2013

By Carlo Barbieri

A famous song that’s been around for decades urges people to “Forget your troubles, c’mon, get happy.” It’s particularly telling that songwriters Ted Koehler and Harold Arlen penned this optimistic, pull-yourselves-up-by-your-bootstraps melody back in the Depression Era – a time not unlike what we have endured for the past half-dozen years.

Also, there’s a famous saying that notes: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

A number of economists are looking past the dark days of fiscal cliffs and the uncertain Sequestration at better times in the future – perhaps as soon as later this year.

Often, people with small, medium and large businesses can set an example for the entire nation by becoming responsible for their own financial “houses” in hopes that state and federal officials will follow suit.

The Sequestration is an example of how federal spending can be cut, but it is not a very good example.  It appears government officials will slice the fiscal pie in such a way that financial reductions will hurt people – children, seniors and the American public in general, who face a reduction in airport security officers and longer waiting lines.

The full impact of the Sequestration, officials say, has not yet been felt.  But most Americans have survived it with little impact.

Both Republicans and Democrats – who couldn’t agree on a way to stop the Sequestration — should learn from American businesses that there are right ways and wrong ways to cut budgets.

Reducing spending responsibly is something the federal government has yet to grasp.  But look what local businesses are doing.  When a firm’s customer base drops off, it has to trim its budget responsibly to continue operating.  Businesses don’t have the power to print money or raise taxes.  And increased taxes have never been shown to pump needed revenue into government coffers.

In a nutshell, the American public sees the Sequestration as a means of cutting federal spending while politicians are trying to toss it in their faces by trimming money in inappropriate ways.  Businesses could not exist if they adopted the philosophy of arbitrary cutbacks.

That said, let’s look at the good things that are happening in this nation, and let’s put aside—at least for the moment – some of the bad things that seem to dominate the news.

The U.S. economy stands a good chance of improving this year, some officials say. Growth, which has stalled at an average of 2.2 percent since 2010, needs a bump up 4 or 5 percent which, in America, shouldn’t be too much to ask.

There’s hope in the housing market, according to the Washington Post. The number of housing units started is up 22 percent from 2011 and up a whopping 58 percent from 2010. And there is reason to think that the upswing will continue.

One thing is for certain. If building activity keeps rising, construction companies will need more workers. And this could definitely help a segment of the labor market that has been hit hard.

Tourism is an important factor in pumping up the economy throughout the U.S. After years of “stay-cations,” Americans and those in other nations want to see the world.  Florida should be a leader in that department with its plethora of theme parks, historic spots and shopping outlets.  South Florida offers extensive sunshine and sandy beaches for those looking to do a lot of nothing. Communities and counties are seeing the benefit of locating businesses and restaurants near beaches.

Here in South Florida, 65 percent of customers at the Sawgrass Mills Mall in Sunrise visited from Brazil, a country flush with cash and a population not afraid to spend it.

America is also beginning to see the new importance of trade with other nations. For too long, the U.S. was on the short end of the export-import business.  But the reality of strong new markets opened in Asia, Europe and South America – particularly Brazil – are holding out new hope for improvement.

The import-export trade also stresses the need for competitive pricing.  It is the only way this give-and-take industry can work effectively. Investing in the global economy can give firms access to growth in some stronger overseas markets.  Extending hands across the ocean is also a good way to let non-Americans know what a great experience it is to deal with the U.S., the greatest and economically strongest nation on earth.

Americans’ household budget sheets are also looking as good as they have in a decade, which means that as 2013 continues, debt overhang no longer appears like a dark cloud on the economy.  People are paying off their credit card balances and opting either to use cash or debit cards.

It may be a bit too early to start popping the champagne corks. But the signs say we probably won’t need rose-colored glasses any more to see economic good.