Tropical Depression 16 is forecast to grow into Tropical Storm Nicole, possibly as early as Tuesday evening, and potentially swamp South Florida with up to 8 inches of rain.
A tropical storm warning has been issued from the Jupiter Inlet to the southernmost Keys. At 2 p.m., the system was in the Caribbean about 270 miles southwest of Miami, moving northeast at 10 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph.
The primary threat to South Florida: Potentially torrential rains that could trigger significant flooding, the National Weather Service said. A flood warning likely will be issued by Wednesday morning.
Most of the region can expect to see 4 to 8 inches, with isolated pockets possibly seeing considerably more. There also is a chance the system could spawn tornadoes, forecasters said.
As of 2 p.m., Broward and Palm Beach schools had yet to decide if they will close on Wednesday.
Orlando, meanwhile, likely won’t see much severe weather from the system, as it was forecast to produce about 1-2 inches of rain over Central Florida, said meteorologist Tim Sedlock of the National Weather Service office in Melbourne.
While South Florida should see rain bands move in by Tuesday evening, the heaviest downpours should arrive overnight and continue into Wednesday morning, said meteorologist Brad Diehl.
“That’s actually ahead of the tropical system,” he said, noting that at 8 a.m. on Wednesday the system is forecast to be in the Florida Straits just north of the Cuban coast.
The core of the system should approach southeast Florida at about 2 p.m., he said, adding there still is uncertainty in the timing.
While heavy rain should continue through Wednesday afternoon, conditions should start rapidly drying out by Wednesday evening.
The reason: The system’s forward progress is expected to accelerate quickly after it reaches South Florida.
“By Wednesday evening, it’s forecast to move very quickly to the north,” Diehl said. “It will get picked up in an upper-level trough, and that really should accelerate it right out of here.”
At 8 p.m. on Wednesday, the core of the system is forecast to be near Boynton Beach. About 12 hours later, it is expected to be east of Jacksonville, he said.
The approaching storm might be similar to two other South Florida tropical events: Hurricane Irene, which dumped up to 20 inches of rain in October 1999, and the so-called “No-name storm” of October 2000, which produced more than a foot of rain in 24 hours.
The current system has some characteristics of a monsoon tropical systems that commonly arise in the Pacific near Asia. Because of that, its strongest winds and rain are predicted to remain well to its southeast and might remain over the Atlantic, Diehl said.
Even so, metropolitan Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach still can expect to feel winds of 35 to 40 mph, starting at 8 a.m. on Wednesday and into the early afternoon, Diehl said.
By Wednesday night, the winds should die down, he said.
If the system shifts more to the west, South Florida might see considerably worse weather than what is currently forecast, said meteorologist Dan Gregoria.
“Any shift to the east of Florida would keep the significant impacts over the Atlantic and the Bahamas,” he said.
Some tips to help prepare in advance of the storm, courtesy of the Broward County Emergency Management Division:
- Secure or bring inside all lawn furniture and other outside objects that could become a projectile in high winds;
- Secure loose items that could impede water drainage, such as trash receptacles.
- Clear catch basins, drain covers and swale areas of debris.
- As winds increase, remember that vehicles in tow and high-profile vehicles such as trucks, vans, SUVs, or when towing a trailer, are more prone to being pushed or flipped by high wind gusts.