Brazil, how will the economy look with Lula?
We know that, after the current reactions, President Lula, will govern Brazil by imposing its platform based not only on the saying, but mainly on the unsaid, in his campaign.
Lula, contrary to what has been proposed, does not need Congress to govern. He’s going to do it with the Supreme Court, which put him in formal power. Congress, of course, can be co-opted, as it has done before, but only to maintain appearances.
Nor will you have to do or ask, the Supreme is already making the most important changes of the law, even to the shiver of the Constitution
Let’s look at two emblematic cases:
· Private property: Minister Barroso has proposed and has already been approved by his peers the end of private property, with the measure that those who invade will have all the rights and not the owner.
· Freedom of expression and control of the media. It has already been implemented by Minister Alexandre de Moraes, without contestation.
This makes us see, that other items will have their implementation quiet, because what the elected by the Supreme Court wants, will have the support of those who gave him the chair.
Well, after these prolegômenos, we go to some facts that will have importance in the economy and that can influence the decision-making of entrepreneurs, professionals and entrepreneurs
• Labor reform, with the return of the union tax and new rules to avoid or penalize layoffs;
• Legal and structural demotivation of fintechs with return of control of money to banks;
• Creation of rules that tax and hinder exports of commodities in the agricultural area, to counter the increases in costs and inflation that will be generated by the placement of resources to meet “social commitments” of campaign;
• Weakening of the agricultural sector, encouraging land invasions, to destabilize rural producers who opposed it in the elections;
• Increase the value of the “family grant” by adding, in addition to R$ 600.00, plus $150.00 per child;
Repeal the spending ceiling, formally and in fact.
- Increase the value of the “family grant” by adding, in addition to R$ 600.00, plus $150.00 per child;
- Repeal the spending ceiling, formally and in fact;
- Increase the value of the minimum wage, by inflation plus the percentage of the change in GDP;
- Make a large investment in infrastructure and housing, in Brazil and “partner” countries, to return the advantages and restore the losses that occurred due to lava jato;
- End privatisation projects;
- Change the price system of Petrobras – PPI, if the change in internal costs is, without significantly considering external prices;
- Propose a new model of occupation and use of urban and rural land and properties, continuing what has already been advanced by the Supreme Court, already mentioned above.
Little chance of maintaining inflation at the level of 4.3% predicted for next year.
These considerations are the analysis of our customers and friends, remembering that it is part of the new government’s plan to restructure armed forces