When the White House’s strategy was outlined to facilitate, finance and secure the invasion of Ukraine by the Russians, it had as main objectives, among others:
- Create an external “enemy” in terms of helping and achieving a promised “national unity” before the elections;
- Distracting public opinion from failures in domestic politics
- Try to redeem the president from the flaws in the way afghanistan exits;
- Find a culprit for the high oil;
- Justify internal inflation;
- · Give a strong stimulus to the war industry , which has the great support of the party currently in power that was weakened during the last presidential administration, which had been pulling the U.S. out of foreign wars and avoiding fomenting or entering into conflicts.
Everything was going well in this direction:
- Increased u.S. oil purchase of Russia
- Withdrawal of real objections to Russia’s energy supply to Europe
- It was suspended, demotivated and prohibited even prohibited the production of local energy that led the U.S. to be self-sufficient and even more exporting of gas and oil;
As a result there was a large increase in the price of oil because the US no longer had interference in the formation of the price, on the contrary, it was pressing prices upwards;
In strategic terms, Russia would insvade, as it did, Ukraine, which without defense weaponry would be quickly dominated,
The President publicly assured that there would be no reaction to the invasion or American military support to Ukraine “unless there was an abusive act by Russia”
The massacred Ukrainians would give in to the Russians and defend themselves in the form of a chronic war, which would give the American war material industry one more source of income.
Only, they didn’t match the Ukrainians and a lot started to go wrong.
The President of Ukraine went public asking for support and sanctions, BEFORE the invasion, which the US did not want, could not, because it was not in combination with the Russians;
When the U.S. president offered the President of Ukraine to safely remove him from his country, Volodymyr Zelensky replied that he “did not want a ride but weapons to defend himself.”
Several European countries ended up changing from their position, crouched, to firmer reactions, pressured by public opinion;
The real position of the American government began to become clearer every day, such as, among other things, poland’s veto of giving aviões to the Ukrainians, avoiding the massacre that has been taking place.
On the other hand, Russia’s vulnerability began to appear. Even though it has a fantastic nuclear arsenal and an extraordinary war machine, its economy is smaller than that of Italy and began to feel the sanctions, even if still tenuous, claud and timid, from the West.
The nationalist spirit of the Ukrainians began to react to the invacao, despite russian power, the killing of children, the bombing of maternity wards and hospitals.
And with this, even the Russians didn’t count and… nor biden who hadn’t combined with the ukrainians
Carlo Barbieri
Oxford Group
President
barbieri@oxfordusa.com