Published On: Mon, Jun 8th, 2020

U.S. already shows return to growth

Contrary to what the compromised media advertised and those that politicize the economy, the U.S. is already proving what Oxford economists said: that the U.S. will be the first country to emerge from the crisis.

Not that she was small or a maroon. It was the biggest economic crisis of the last 100 years at least.

But the actions of the U.S. government were agile and assertive to mitigate the serious consequences of the crisis.

About 40 million people took out unemployment insurance, raising their pre-crisis percentage from 3.5% to almost 15%, more precisely 14.7%.

But the disaster did not worsen as many wished and proclaimed in May, which boasted that unemployment would reach 20%, even in a shameless way.

Contrary to the expectations of the “experts” on duty were created 2.5 million jobs in May and with that the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%, instead of increasing to 20% so proclaimed and would say, desired by these “economists”.

The 8 million new unemployed did not occur, fortunately, confirmed by figures from the Institute of Employment Statistics.

These figures contradict forecasts, for example from Bloomberg, which is a major opposition to President Trump, which said it would skyrocket to 19 percent and that the number of jobs would fall by another 7.5 million.

With these results the stock markets rose as a whole.

As known but denied, the restaurant and entertainment sector was one of the fastest growing in the level of employment, with the opening to another 1.2 million vacancies.

The construction area also grafted inMay, a total of 464,000, as well as vacancies were created in the health area, with 312,000 new jobs.

Let’s look at some charts of the size of the crisis:

Part of the new jobs are part-time (2/5), which also indicate a caution on the part of entrepreneurs in hiring.

Another important factor to consider, is that a large portion of those who have gone to unemployment insurance, are earning more in this situation ($600.00 pernona) and will only be interested in returning to work,  as these benefits are cut, which should take time, because many jobs will cease to exist, given thatthe companies have changed their wayof working, are reformulating their products and seeking to cut costsand,  with this, many types of jobs will no longer have demand.

The level of unemployment alsovaries  by ethnicity. For whites ranged from 14.2 to 12.4, afro descendants from 16.7 to 16.8%, Asians also had  a worsening from 14.5% to 15% Hispanics improved from  18.9% to 17.6%..

By the atymism of the economic crisis and the speed with which it broke the system, it may take years for the U.S. to return to the situation it was before the crisis. But we believe that the unemployment rate should return to less than 10% before the end of this year. It can even get close to 8%.

There is a lot of debris to be collected before the activity returns to the exuberance that the US had before it was hit by this virus from China, but it will surely be the country  that will come out before and strongest of the pandemic.

Carlo Barbieri.

About the Author

- My name is Carlo Barbieri, an entrepreneur, civic activist and a leader of many organizations associated with Brazil. A native of Brazil myself, I am currently the CEO of Oxford Group, a firm composed of many international consulting and trading companies. I am also a founding member of the Brazilian Business Group and founding member and Past President of the Brazil Club. In addition, I serve as a Board member of the Deerfield Chamber of Commerce. I have served as a member of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Florida Brazil Partnership. Past President of the Rotary Club – Boca Raton West for the 2014-2015 term, I have also been Vice President and Professor of 2Grow – Human Development. An Ambassador of Barry University in Brazil, I am the former President of the Black Fire Bull Steak House. I have also presided over a number of organizations such as the Brazilian Association of Trading Companies (ABECE), Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce in São Paulo, Brazil-Australia Chamber of Commerce, Brazil-Dominican Republican Chamber of Commerce; director of the Trade Center of the State of São Paulo, Brazilian Association of Freight Forwarders and Brazilian Association of Banks. I was also a local Council member for the Consulate General of Brazil in Miami, for the 2013-2017 term.

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