Published On: Fri, Jun 7th, 2019

Real Estate, mortgage markets from local pros

With the continuing growth of the US economy, even the most skeptical people believe that the value of a residential property will continue to increase in the coming years.

In a speech to the Boca Raton Rotary Club Sunrise this past week, two real estate professionals discussed the state of the housing and financing markets.
The following national statistics was bringing to our attention:
• Existing home prices are up 3.6% over the past 12 months
• Current home prices in the South are up 2.5% during that same period.
• The Midwest region has the highest rate of increase in the past 12 months.
• During that same time period, existing home prices in Florida are up about 5%.

National forecasts indicate an increase of 4.3% in home values by the end of 2019, a 2.8% hike in 2020, a 2.5% spike in 2021, a 3.0% upward push in 2022 and 3.4% increase in 2023.

How price patterns evolved over the past 30 years:
• The average annual price gain for single family homes was 3.6% prior to the real estate bubble of 2007-2008.
• During the bubble, the annual price gain for single family homes was 7.1%
• When the bubble burst, it triggered several years where prices for single family homes fell just over 6%.
• During the recovery, single-family home prices have staged a 6.2% average annual price gain.

“Between now and 2023, the predictions are showing an expected gain totaling 17%,” was said”. “Historically, outside of the bubble, home price projections have held up well.”

Home ownership rates have fallen, but they are now trending upward. Millennials are buying. They want to get into homes because it is cheaper than renting.

It was explained why that figure increased. “For many years, it was more expensive to buy than to rent. It is now more expensive to rent. In the surveys, millennials who rent say they are determined to buy a home, in fact, 73% of renter millennials plan to buy a home in the next three years.”

Another interesting fact that came out in the presentation focused on the recovery in the percentage of homeowners. That number had fallen from 69.2% in 2004 to 63.7% in 2015. “But this figure increased to 64.8% last year and is on a clearly increasing trend.”

A significant indicator of the permanence of homeownership is the percentage of owners age 35 and under, which rose from 34.5% to 36.5% in the last quarter of 2018.

This may have been the result of a change in the millennials’ home purchasing pattern. Today, 66% are determined to buy a home, which represents a fundamental change in attitude that has taken place in the past five years.

We did further research into the housing market and found an interesting article on mansionglobal.com, a website owned by News Corp. It quoted several economists who, a few months ago, reversed their earlier predictions of a troubled housing market this year. They did an about-face and declared that home prices are on track for growth in the coming months.
Those revisions, the article said, came about because of an unanticipated drop in mortgage rates.
Researchers at realtor.com – also owned by News Corp. — now say they expect U.S. home prices to rise nearly 3%, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.2%. Still, they say overall sales will basically flat line this year compared to 2018, but the decline should result in only a 0.3% drop by year’s end.
“The 2019 housing market is different than what we predicted in fall 2018, primarily due to an unexpected drop in mortgage rates in January 2019,” said Danielle Hale, realtor.com’s chief economist.
Mortgage rates peaked in November 2018, up to nearly 5%, discouraging home buyers at the end of 2018 and fueling predictions of a slowdown in the housing market this year. But the Fed changed course on its monetary policy tightening at the start of 2019 and chose to hold interest rates steady for the time being.

About the Author

- My name is Carlo Barbieri, an entrepreneur, civic activist and a leader of many organizations associated with Brazil. A native of Brazil myself, I am currently the CEO of Oxford Group, a firm composed of many international consulting and trading companies. I am also a founding member of the Brazilian Business Group and founding member and Past President of the Brazil Club. In addition, I serve as a Board member of the Deerfield Chamber of Commerce. I have served as a member of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Florida Brazil Partnership. Past President of the Rotary Club – Boca Raton West for the 2014-2015 term, I have also been Vice President and Professor of 2Grow – Human Development. An Ambassador of Barry University in Brazil, I am the former President of the Black Fire Bull Steak House. I have also presided over a number of organizations such as the Brazilian Association of Trading Companies (ABECE), Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce in São Paulo, Brazil-Australia Chamber of Commerce, Brazil-Dominican Republican Chamber of Commerce; director of the Trade Center of the State of São Paulo, Brazilian Association of Freight Forwarders and Brazilian Association of Banks. I was also a local Council member for the Consulate General of Brazil in Miami, for the 2013-2017 term.

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